19 Ekim 2012 Cuma

Tukcell Report

3Q12 EBITDA beats estimates
Turkcell reported net earnings of TRY571m in 3Q12, (up 6% y-y, 7% q-q) in line with expectations; 3Q12 EBITDA at TRY912m was 7% better than CNBC-e consensus. While lower churn in the market decreased selling expenses, the dilutive impact of increasing off-net traffic and higher bad-debt expenses pulled EBITDA margin down 1.4ppt y-y to 33.1%.

Subscriber additions were strong on a group scale
Turkcell added 442K subscribers in 3Q12 in Turkey (Avea: +206K), which is better than our estimate. On the group scale, respective 751K and 1m sub additions in Ukraine and Kazakhstan were eye-catching. Turkcell group subscribers increased by 2.3m to 68.1m in 3Q12. Blended mobile ARPU in Turkey came in at TRY22.0 (+4.3), slightly better than our estimate.

BUY rating and DCF/Multiple-based TP of TRY11.11 maintained
Results are running above our estimates and we will revisit our numbers. Meanwhile, management once again updated its revenue guidance to TRY10.3b-10.4b (previously TRY10.1b-10.3b) and EBITDA guidance to TRY3.1b-3.2b (previously TRY3,050m-3,200m). We maintain our BUY rating. Competition remains the main downside risk.

Smartphone penetration continues to rise
Increasing smartphone penetration is one of the most encouraging trends in Turkcell. New Turkcell branded smartphone models, which have increased affordability, boosted smartphone numbers in Turkcell’s network by 700K to 5.5m in 3Q12. Mobile broadband growth remained strong at 34% y-y; TRY276m revenue in 3Q12. Superonline remains on track with 90% y-y growth on EBITDA in 3Q12. Despite strong subscriber growth in Fintur, its contribution to consolidated net income fell by 2%
q-q, which might be related to the intensifying competitive environment in Kazakhstan. Belarus operation has reached break-even on an EBITDA level in 3Q12, but still does not justify the investment there in our view.

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