17 Ekim 2012 Çarşamba

Buy - Sell

·         3Q EARNINGS SEASON kicks off today with TTKOM (HOLD, TP: TL7.44 ) => we exp PSTN sub-base contraction to have continued in 3Q but price adj to moderate PSTN rev contraction. We exp 3Q non-financials’ to beat banks due to CPI-linkers & lack of divi => NI of non-financials +23% q-q & 48% y-y (low base => 3Q11 TL deprec 9% against basket vs flat in 3Q12) vs banks -6% q-q & +34% y-y. Best performers among banks => AKBNK (BUY, TP: TL8.80), YKBNK (BUY, TP: TL 4.85) & ALBRK (BUY, TP: TL1.56) => q-q & y-y NI improvement. Worst performers => ASYAB (HOLD, TP: TL 2.04) & VAKBN (HOLD, TP: TL 4.42) => NI decline q-q & y-y. BANKS NET/NET: 3Q12 was good & 4Q12 should be better, but 2013 is questionable <= incr’d loan growth, asset quality issues & fee limitations. Some domestic-demand-sensitive cyclicals are likely to have seen profit erosion in 3Q12 <= low econ activity w a mere 2.5% q-q loan growth (100bp of which was due to window dressing in the final week). Non-financial winners => aviation, TUPRS & beverage. Losers => steel, auto & cement. Overall, we exp recovering econ activity towards YE to boost oper perfs of most sectors in 4Q12.

·         TTKOM 3Q12 results tdy (HOLD; TP TL7.44) => We est TL3224m revenue (+5% y-y) TL633m NI (+76% y-y: in 3Q11 TTKOM incurred large FX losses on USD & EUR loans due to the depreciation in lira). Consensus NI TRY644m. Our and the analyst survey’s EBITDA estimates are TL1,315m (+6% y-y) and TL1,319m respectively. We exp PSTN subscriber-base contraction to have continued in 3Q12 and price adjustments to have moderated PSTN revenue contraction to 3% in y-y terms. We exp DSL subscriber base to remain stable <= competition from mobile broadband continues. We anticipate 9% y-y mobile revenue growth <= both ARPU (+3% y-y) and subscriber (+200k q-q) growth.

·         TTKOM & Fatih project (HOLD; TL TL7.44) => TTKOM announced it won two tenders to establish infrastructure facilities (in-building cabling, intranet setup etc.) in 3,000 schools (42,000 schools in Turkey) as part of the Fatih Project. The tenders amount to TL70m => small portion of the project (total size est TL8bn) => no material implication on valuation. Nevertheless, cTL23K per school in recent tenders shows margins may not be generous, while secondary effects could be a key contributor. The gov has not yet started tenders for the access network to schools, which are expected in the coming years.

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