Akbank, Erdemir, Sabanci, Sinpas, TAV, THY Company News

Akbank announced its operating plan yesterday. Akbank management believe that their strategy to increase profitability by focussing on higher yielding assets is fully on track.. The management maintain their 16% ROAE guidance for 2013e. In 2013e, the management expect: 22% TRY and 15% FX loan growth and 16% deposit growth – parallel with HSBC estimates; broadly flat NIM y-o-y (c20bps negative impact on NIM due to lower yields on securities to be compensated with rising spreads) – parallel with HSBC estimate; 30bps rise in the NIM adjusted with swap costs -Trading item to be positive (owing to expected realizations of unrealized gains on marketable securities portfolio) despite the losses on swaps (USD2bn CCY swap with a cost of 7% and USD2bn short term swap with a cost of 4.5-5%) – better than HSBC estimate; 18-20% fee and commission income growth –slightly lower than HSBC estimate; 14% operating expenses growth – slightly higher than HSBC estimate; and 60bps net cost of risk (128bps of gross cost of risk) – parallel with HSBC estimate. The ROAE target is slightly more optimistic compared to sell-side average estimates.

Erdemir will spend USD300m for investments in 2013. Erdemir’s Chairman Fatih Tar announced that Erdemir will spend USD300m for investments in 2013. The announced figure is slightly higher than earlier company guidance. Based on earlier company guidance, Erdemir has spent USD187m in 2012 and plans to spend USD344m between 2013 and 2015 for capex.

Sabanci seeking USD1.0bn value for Avivasa before IPO. Sabanci Holding’s (OW, target TRY12.0) President of Retail and Insurance Group Haluk Dincer stated that they would seek USD1.0 market value for life and pension JV Avivasa before a public opening. Mr Dincer added that such valuation could be seen towards end of 2014 given the new regulations for pension system. Closest peer and the only listed pension company currently at the ISE, Anadolu Hayat, has a current mcap of USD940m.

Sinpas REIC managed to deliver 1871 units in 2012. Management guidance was 1800 units, while HSBC expectation was 1700 units. Sinpas (O/W, target TRY1.90) recorded 415 unit deliveries in Q4, which was strongly supported with Palaces project deliveries for the first time (119 units). Based on these numbers the company will likely record around TRY100m revenues from residential unit deliveries in Q4, which will be boosted with commercial unit sales. Looking forward, deliveries in Palaces and Bursa Modern will drive 2013 P&L as Bosphorus City and Aquacity projects are near completion and Incek Life and Egeboyu projects are still at early stages of construction.  

TAV interested in operating New York's LaGuardia Airport. TAV Airports (OW, target TRY11.5) CEO stated during a speech yesterday that TAV would apply together with ADP (Aeroport de Paris) to obtain pre-qualification for operating rights at New York's LaGuardia Airport.. This is a new development with no further details provided by TAV. LaGuardia, located 13 km from midtown Manhattan, is operated by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which also operate JFK and Newark airports. Laguardia handled 24m passengers in 2011, mostly domestic (vs JFK 47.4m, Newark 33.9m). LaGuardia has four terminals, Central Terminal, US Airways Terminal, Delta Air Lines Terminal and Marine Air Terminal/Terminal A that serves international passengers. According to InfraPPP World, the Authority has a project (Replacement P3 Project) to renew the existing Central Terminal building in exchange for operating rights for a specified term. Based on this, various companies among which are ADPM, Bechtel, Ferrovial, Samsung Construction, Skanska, Odebrecht have shown interest in the project. The Central Terminal Building (CTB) serves most of LaGuardia's domestic airlines (around 13m passengers in 2011). Prospects for TAV are immature for LaGuardia yet.

THY December traffic results - another set of strong results. Turkish Airlines (OW, target TRY5.9) announced December traffic results yesterday. Highlights are as follows: Passengers were up 20% yoy at 3.1m, down only 3% m-o-m despite seasonality, load factor (LF) up 4.2pps at 76% (the highest print for December) and cargo-mail volume up 26%. Full year 2012 passengers reached 39m, up 20% y-o-y, in line with HSBC's 39.1m, LF at 77.7%, 5.1pps better than 2011 (slightly above HSBC's 77.5% forecast), cargo-mail up 25% at 463k (vs HSBCe 469k). Overall, another set of strong results, putting 2012 full year performance at par with HSBC estimates. On a quarterly basis, Q4 pax was up 19.3% yoy, LF up 4.4pps averaging 77.2% and cargo-mail up 19%, indicative of good Q4 financial performance.

 

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