Buy - Sell

·         YKBNK (BUY TP: TRY6.41) CEO does not expect a fine from the Competition Board, according to dailies Sabah/Zaman and local newswires. Forecasts earnings growth at 10%-15% y-y in FY13; loan growth of 15% y-y.

 

·         HALKB (HOLD; TP: TL18.72) and VAKBN (BUY, TP: TL6.72), according to Hurriyet, might get licenses to operate in the participation (Islamic) banking sector. This would help develop participation banking in Turkey, the news adds. We agree. We do not foresee a major threat to existing participation banks. Sl positive for HALKB and VAKBN but neutral for ASYAB (HOLD, TP: TRY2.18) and ALBRK (BUY, TP: TRY2.50).

 

·         THYAO TI (BUY, TP TRY8.46)/ TAVHL TI (BUY, TP TRY15.61) > THY chairman says despite further measures to be taken at Istanbul Ataturk airport, the airport was unlikely to be able to accommodate THY’s growth until the new Istanbul airport opens earliest by 2017. Adds, construction for the new airport was unlikely to start this year given the likely postponement in the bidding deadline of May 3. THY’s shifting of many flights from Istanbul Ataturk to other airports in Istanbul or Turkey would not be wise given its hub strategy and would hurt margins. Comments for Istanbul Ataturk airport is somewhat good news for TAV Airports as it implies the govt might be forced to consider some physical capacity expansion at the airport providing TAV Airports more than expected growth (and somewhat bad news for THY unless such action is taken).

 

·         BIZIM (NR) 4Q12 review > NI @ TL6.7m (-36% y-y; cons: TL9.3m) => results slightly better than what was hinted by tax purpose financials. Rev @ TL527m (+17.9% y-y; cons: TRY526m). Gross margin @ 8.7% (-0.5ppt y-y) due to one-off inventory tobacco gains recorded in 4Q11. Note that one-off tobacco inventory gains will be realized in 1Q13. EBITDA @ TL18.6m (unchanged y-y; cons: TL19,1m). Deviation in NI from cons est stemmed from financing exps => 4Q12: TL7.2m, 3Q12: TL6,7m, 4Q11: TL3.3m. The independent appraisal value of “Sok Marketler” (recorded under financial assets in BIZIM’s B/S) incr’d from TL24.4m in Dec-11 to TL34.7m in Dec-12. The Co will hold a conf call tdy @ 18:00 local time to discuss 2012 results, and 2013 guidance.

 

·         BIMAS (NR) 4Q12 conf call highlights > 2013 Guidance => i) 15%-20% y-y rev growth (Bloomberg cons: 21%), ii) 15.5% gross mrgn (FY12: 15.7%), 5% EBITDA mrgn (cons: 5%, FY12: 5%) and 3.5% NI margin (cons: 3.5%, FY12: 3.3%), iii) 350-400 new stores in TR (FY12: 366), 50 stores in Morocco (FY12: 34), and at least 30 stores in Egypt, iv) capex/sales ratio @ 2.0-2.5%. LFL sales growth in 4Q12 @ 7.1% (FY12: 11.9%) => basket size growth @ 1.7% (FY12: 4.9%) and customer traffic growth @ 5.4% (FY12: 6.4%). BIMAS booked a one-off c.TL5m vacation liability expense in 4Q12 (the liability was calculated retrospectively). Some reclassifications also supported EBITDA slightly in 4Q12.

 

·         ULKER (HOLD; TP TL9.17) 4Q12 > NI @ TL26.2m, below our est of TL42.1m and cons est of TL37.0m <= lower than exp’d other inc and higher than exp’d financial exps. EBITDA @ TL54.5m => in line with our est (TL54.3m) but abv the cons est (TL49.1m). Despite higher opex, improvement in gross mrgn is encouraging for 2013 exp. The Co will hold a conf call tdy @ 16pm local time.

 

·         AKSEN (HOLD; TP TL4.35) 4Q12 > NI @ TL54m, much higher than our est of TL35m and cons est of TL21m <= deferred tax inc of TL35m on the recovery of tax loss carry-forward assets. EBITDA @ TL69m was below our (TRY80m) and cons (TRY75m) estimates <= electricity prices remained under pressure in 4Q12, as oversupply weighed on the market. Recall also that the Co’s high mrgn electricity sales to Syria were ceased for more than one month in 4Q12. In 1Q13, oversupply in electricity market continued to pressure prices.

 

·         EKGYO (NR) > ICSID (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes) ruled out objections based on TULIPs’ unwillingness to negotiate and decided to proceed with the case. Recall, TULIP sued the Turkish Government (regarding one of Emlak’s project - 1stanbul) for not keeping its promises. The lawsuit is exp’d to be finalised by the end of this year; yet, EKGYO does not expect any material –VE outcome from this case.

 

·         TRKCM (NR) > 4Q12 net profit @ TL12m, below cons. est. (CNBC-e) @ TL19m. 4Q EBITDA came @ TRY42m, again below the cons. @ TL49m. Net sales figure @ TL334m (vs TL312m cons.) indicates operational profitability remained below expectations. Net sales almost flat. EBITDA declined 44% y-y, while EBITDA margin contracted to 12.6% in 4Q12 from 22.3% in 4Q11 (3Q12: 13.9%) <=9% y-y increase in COGS excl. depreciation (higher natural gas prices) and 20% y-y rise in opex.

 

·         ANACM (NR) > 4Q12 net profit @ TRY2m vs. TL21mn cons. est. (Bloomberg). EBITDA significantly below expectations @ TL43m vs. TRY69m cons. est. 4Q12 Net sales @ TL337m below est. @ TL357m. 4Q12 EBITDA margin 12.8% vs. 9.3% consensus on 11% y-y rise in COGS excl. depreciation.

 

·         SISE (NR) > announced 4Q12 net profit @ TL32m, less than half of the TL73m cons. est. (CNBC-e). EBITDA remained significantly below expectations @ TL161m vs. cons. @ TL241m. EBITDA margin @ 12% in 4Q12 vs cons. @ 18.3%. Net sales increased 4% y-y. COGS +14% y-y excl. depreciation, on higher natural gas prices.

 

·         PETKM (NR) > NI @ TL47m (cons: TL19m, 4Q11 neg. TL40m). Rev @ TL938m (down 4% y-y, cons: TL1.13b) with core petrochemical business EBITDA @ TL15m (cons: TL37m, 4Q11 neg. TL63m) => core business EBITDA mrgn down 0.7ppt q-q to 1.6% but up 8.1ppt y-y from neg 6.5%. The results indicate that conditions continued to be tough in commodity petrochemical business in 4Q12. Better than exp’d bottom line <= two one-off items: i) gain on an asset sale and ii) lump-sum invoicing of costs from all previous quarters related with Socar’s refinery project.

 

·         DOAS (BUY, TP TL10.50) 4Q12 tdy > We  f/cast TL1.53bn revenues (cons: TL1.46bn), TL69m EBITDA (cons: TL74m) and TL40m NI (cons: TL47m). Our DPS est on 2012 income is TL0.57/shr. Based on 4Q12 results  of other auto Co’s, we believe there could be some upside risk to our 4Q12 est and 2012 dividend f/cast. The Co will hold an analyst meeting on Mar 8^th, Fri.

 

·         HALKB (HOLD; TP: 18.72) > DPS: TRY0.369  / Div. Yield: 1.97% / Exp. Div. Date: 23 May 2013 / Neutral.