Akcansa reported TRY33m net earnings in 3Q12, down 3% y-y and 28%q-q. We had estimated the bottom-line at TRY35.6m. The discrepancy stems mostly from operational performance as 3Q12 EBITDA at TRY61m was 4% lower than our estimate and 9% below CNBC-e consensus. 3Q12 revenue was 2% below our estimate.
Domestic activity was stagnant
3Q12 domestic revenue was stagnant remaining flat y-y at TRY230m while export sales grew 12% y-y to TRY50m (revival in Russia might have helped). EBITDA margin contracted by 100bp y-y (we had estimated 50bp contraction) to 22% in 3Q12 due mainly to higher electricity prices. Yet, y-t-d margins proved stronger than we had originally estimated.
Raising our TP by 9% to TRY10.73 from TRY9.80
We are incorporating a strong recovery in margins since 2Q12 into our numbers. We now estimate 2012 EBITDA margin at 21.3%, up from 18.7%. 2012 revenue, EBITDA and net income estimates are raised 3%, 17% and 30%, respectively. Accordingly, we raise our target price by 9% to TRY10.73 from TRY9.80 with 20% upside potential. BUY maintained.
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